On May 13, 2025, the new Carney government was sworn in. There is an old friend of our Chinese, Gregor Robertson, on the cabinet list. This man served as the mayor of Vancouver from December 2008 to November 2018, so he has a Chinese name and is well known. Before becoming mayor, Robertson was a member of the British Columbia Provincial Council, representing the NDP. He was elected as a member of the House of Commons on April 28, 2025, representing the Liberal Party. He was appointed as Housing Minister on May 13. It can be seen that this gentleman has gained a lot after defecting to the Liberal Party. Robertson is the 6th Canadian Housing Minister, and Carney is the 24th Prime Minister. This shows that Canada’s housing minister is as in short supply as housing, and not every prime minister has a housing minister.
Robertson's former Housing Minister, Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, is an out-and-out Liberal and a well-known YouTube blogger. He focuses on housing topics. His term is from December 2024 to May 2025, less than 6 months. He is Canada's housing minister with the shortest tenure. Judging from the current federal election and the appointment and dismissal of the Housing Minister, Canada’s housing problem is the same as that of the Housing Minister: although it is important, there are many variables and full of drama. Since I settled in Canada in 2008, I have found that the housing issue is discussed intensely during every election, but is no longer mentioned after the election, because the housing issue cannot be solved by the government at all. It is just a place to check in during the election.
During the election, the two issues that Canadians were most concerned about were the U.S.-Canada tariff war and housing prices. After the cabinet list was announced, the media spotlight immediately fell on the new housing minister.Robertson made it clear: Canadian housing prices do not need to fall.Carney made a vague statement: If incomes rose faster than house prices, Canadians' housing crisis would not worsen. At the same time, both men vowed to accelerate housing construction, with the goal of building 500,000 affordable housing units per year. Accelerating housing construction means increasing the supply of housing while keeping housing prices from falling. How is this achieved?
01 The core of the Liberal Party’s housing policy: people have nothing but are happy
Two-thirds of Canadian households own their own home, and one-fifth of them own multiple homes. These beneficiaries of housing prices are the “really expensive” voters that the government needs to protect. Therefore, "housing prices do not need to fall" is meant for most Canadians. The other one-third of households have the opposite view on housing prices. They are also precious voters. What should we do? The Liberal Party government has come up with a way, which is for the government to use taxpayers' money to build low-rent housing, so that families without houses can "rent" cheaply and happily, and stop thinking about buying a house.
How did Robertson succeed in replacing his predecessor and become Housing Minister immediately after being elected to the federal parliament for the first time? There is only one reason. The two people are of different ages, but they both want to safeguard the interests of their peers. Robertson was born in 1964, and his predecessor was born in 1984; Robertson told reporters,Housing prices don’t need to drop because the government needs to protect Canadians’ real estate wealth; and his predecessor stated that the government has no responsibility to protect Canadians’ real estate wealth. The attitude towards those with vested interests in real estate wealth determines whether these two people will stay or go. In Canada, people born in the 1960s and those born in the 1980s have very different views on real estate because their interests are inconsistent. Dear real estate investment veterans, the current Liberal government has made it clear that the Minister of Housing who is unwilling to protect real estate wealth needs to give way to a Minister who is willing to protect everyone's wealth.Canadian housing prices have stabilized.
Under the Liberal housing policy, the government will subsidize developers who build low-rent housing. For example, if a developer buildscommercial housing, the construction loan interest rate is 15%, if the constructionlow-rent housing, the government used taxpayers' money to subsidize loan interest and lowered the construction loan interest rate to 5%. In this way, developers can obediently build low-rent housing under the command of the government. There is a small BUG here, that is, it does not apply in big cities. In cities like Toronto and Vancouver, even if they use subsidized loan interest rates to build low-rent housing, rents still cannot be reduced to affordable levels. After construction, developers cannot withdraw from the construction projects because they cannot find the funds to take over the housing. Judging from the latest released data on new real estate construction starts nationwide from January to April 2025, the Liberal government's subsidy policy has achieved the desired effect: new housing starts across the country have remained stable, only down 2% compared with the same period in 2024. New housing starts in Saskatchewan increased by 94% and Quebec by 55%, but new housing starts in Ontario fell by 32% and British Columbia fell by 22%. It is true that Canada is building housing vigorously, but there is a slight problem with the location of the construction. Places that were already affordable are becoming more affordable than before. The above policies can save a group of developers who are willing to obey the government's instructions, which can be regarded as a contribution to the economy.
A man broke his leg and screamed in pain. A tailor solved the problem and sewed the crying mouth shut. This is Canada’s current solution to the housing crisis.
Solving the housing crisis with low-rent housing is a good idea thought up by the Trudeau government. The federal government has legitimately started to intervene in the housing market since 2017. The data given by CMHC is that "as of September 2024, the federal government has committed to invest 57.57 billion Canadian dollars to support the creation of more than 156,000 housing units and the repair of more than 297,000 housing units." Judging from this "good news", the government has achieved remarkable results in solving the housing crisis, but this is not the case. Torontonians' wait times for affordable housing have remained unchanged over the years, with the wait time for a one-bedroom apartment staying at 15 years. If you are a qualified low-income earner and apply for a one-bedroom low-rent house, you will be approved today and you will be able to move in in 2040. Maybe the Liberal government is really serious about building low-rent housing, but according to Say's law,supply creates demand, the more low-rent housing is built, the more people apply, so the waiting time remains the same.
Low-rent housing is a bottomless pit, but the federal government is working hard for the welfare of Canadians. The ideal of the Liberal Party is to allow more Canadians, especially young people, to live in low-rent housing as soon as possible. By then,People have nothing, but they are happy.
Canada's housing construction capacity is limited. Since the founding of the country, it has never built more than 275,000 units of new housing in a year. If Mr. Robertson were to go all out and use all resources to build low-rent housing, Canada'scommercial housingConstruction came to a complete halt. I am very optimistic about Mr. Luo, so Canadacommercial housingConstruction will be frozen,The price of second-hand houses has stabilized.
02 The bad news is about to run out, the real estate stress test results have been announced
What Canadians are most concerned about is the tariff war between the United States and Canada. The threat of tariffs was amplified due to the election, so Canadians successfully elected a new Prime Minister Carney who can best deal with the United States. I estimate that the United States will be able to make some compromises on tariffs because it is afraid of the new prime minister. At the same time, divisions within the United States will also accelerate the time and extent of this compromise.
On April 2, the United States imposed at least a 10% import tariff on all goods from 150 countries around the world. However, because it was afraid of the Canadian Prime Minister, it did not dare to impose this tariff on Canada. Instead, it only imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian steel, aluminum and automobiles. It can be said that Canada is currently the country least affected by the current round of US tariff policies in the world. However, because the topic of tariffs was artificially amplified during the election, Canadians also have the largest psychological shadow on the tariff issue, which is comparable to the psychological shadow of Americans.
On April 9, the United States found that the U.S. bond market could not withstand the tossing, and immediately announced a 90-day freeze on tariffs, with July 9 as the deadline. What happens next? No one knows. The prices of goods in Wal-Mart in the United States are like a person holding back a pee, and he can hardly hold it anymore. It is expected that in June, the US government will finalize tax rates with 18 major trading countries and hold down Wal-Mart's prices, otherwise a group of MAGA loyal fans will wake up. The commodity prices of Wal-Mart in the United States are a time bomb for the US government. Although it is still playing the game of maximum pressure with the EU and Japan, the US government does not have much time left for itself.
Currently, the United States has imposed a 10% import tariff on its old rival, the United Kingdom, and has imposed an additional 30% import tariff on China. The import tariff to Canada should be between 10% of the floor price and 30% of the ceiling price. The day the United States clarifies its tariffs on Canada, all tariff uncertainties will suddenly become certain. Even if the status quo is maintained, no matter how big the impact is on the Canadian economy, the magnitude of the impact will be certain, and the Canadian government's response measures will be appropriate. Currently, 20% of Canadians are worried about unemployment, but the actual unemployment rate is only 6.9%, which shows that many people are unfounded. When tariffs are clarified, it will be easier for people who are not affected to make investment or consumption decisions. My personal opinion is that no matter how the final tariffs are decided, Canada can voluntarily abandon the automobile manufacturing industry. After all, Australia completely abandoned the automobile industry more than 20 years ago and turned its efforts to develop other industries. Some of the industries that Canada is currently clinging to need to die early and be reborn as soon as possible.
After the ups and downs of the past five years, the market's stress test on Canadian real estate has been basically completed. The main test results are as follows:
1. Buying a vacation property when interest rates are low is a wrong choice. Vacation rentals around the GTA are among the hardest hit areas for real estate investors. I have warned everyone against the wind during the epidemic, and I hope my readers have not overturned in those areas.
2. You cannot buy off-the-plan properties. Cherish life and stay away from off-the-plan properties. Real estate investors, do not buy off-the-plan properties as an investment at any time. If you want to invest, buy second-hand houses. I hope that friends who have bought off-the-plan properties will remember this lesson for a lifetime and tell the next generation.
3. It’s not that the bank’s policy discriminates against low-income families, but that the bank’s refusal does not wake up those who pretend to be asleep. During the period of low interest rates, families that rushed into the market with usurious loans could not afford it now even if interest rates have been lowered. Otherwise, why would so many people get together to sell their houses? Going around the bank to borrow money at usurious rates is not brave, but reckless.
4. Small CONDO is junk food, which is delicious but harmful to health. In April 2025, the inventory of second-hand houses in Toronto was 4.5 months, of which CONDO inventory was 27 months, of which the inventory with an area of less than 500 square feet was as high as 13 months. For small properties, housing prices may seem low, but the price per square foot is very high. During the epidemic, this kind of small box could not be sold or rented; when the delivery of off-the-plan properties was concentrated, it became the most difficult property to sell among all property types. CONDOs below 500 square feet are not suitable for investment.
5. Families that have increased mortgages on their own homes and bought investment properties have become loan vegetative, making it difficult to pay off their home loans before retirement and realize the vision of debt-free retirement.Home is your own home, not for fun, try not to take out a loan to build an additional home or sublet your home. Selling their homes when house prices are high and planning to buy them back when house prices are low. This speculative thinking of selling high and buying low makes many families unable to buy back their homes after selling them because income fluctuates and bank lending policies are not static.
The past five years have been a period of ups and downs for the real estate market, which has even shaken some people's determination to invest in real estate. Those who make mistakes in real estate transactions may suffer irreparable losses throughout their lives.The stagnation of transaction volume and housing prices in the real estate market in the past two years is a process of market clearing.Let those real estate buying and selling behaviors that make mistakes intentionally or unintentionally be fully exposed and the losses fully realized. Real estate speculators have gradually faded out of the market, leaving behind families who still have confidence in real estate investment and have the ability to hold properties for a long time. Compared with the brief market downturn after the subprime mortgage crisis, the real estate ordeal of the past two years has been a real test, a live performance of naked swimmers emerging from the water. After going through this test, housing prices in Canada, Toronto and Vancouver have stabilized.
03 Portrait of people planning to buy a house in 2025
CMHC produces a consumer survey report every year and has done so for 25 consecutive years. The 2025 report was released on May 21. This report provides a clear picture of how Canadian consumers view real estate, and it also paints a picture of potential homebuyers.
According to the 2025 report, there are several key insights: Respondents are more optimistic than last year about buying a home as a good investment; first-time homebuyer transactions have increased; gifts or inheritances remain an important part of a homebuyer's down payment; and the share of consumers reporting difficulty maintaining debt payments has increased.
74% of mortgage consumers believe the value of their home will increase in the next 12 months, which is up from 65% in 2024.
Homebuyers will need an average of 3.4 years to save for a down payment, down from 4.2 years in 2024. Gifts or inheritances continue to be a significant component of homebuyers' down payments, accounting for 35%, with the average gift amount being $79,127.among first-time home buyers41% used a gift or inheritance as a down payment, the average gift amount is CAD 74,570. For repeat home buyers, only 20% of the down payment comes from gifts, with the average gift amount being 103,382 Canadian dollars.Down payment for repeat home buyers52% of the source is the equity of the previous home.
Fixed interest rates account for 76% of older consumers, those aged 55 and above, and 76% of repeat home buyers choose fixed interest rates. Variable rates are more popular among refinancers, at around 31%. The 5-year fixed rate is the most popular, accounting for 34%, followed by the 3-year fixed rate, accounting for 29%.
The survey shows thatMore consumers are having trouble keeping up with their debt payments,51% in 2025, 42% in 2024,
Portrait of first-time homebuyers: Most of them are aged 25-34 years old (47%), and their household income is mostly between 60,000 and less than 105,000 Canadian dollars (35%). The average person rented a home for 6.3 years before buying a home. The main reasons for purchasing a home are financial readiness (49%), investment opportunity (41%), and need for a larger home (38%). The main sources of down payment are gifts or inheritances (41%), savings outside an RRSP (39%), and savings in a tax-free home savings account (FHSA) (38%). The average gift amount is $74,570. Mortgage loan types, fixed interest rate (56%), floating interest rate (25%), combined interest rate (15%).
Portraits of repeat home buyers: Most are aged 35-44 (29%), and most have a household income of more than 125,000 Canadian dollars (39%). The main reasons for purchasing a home are a change in living situation/marital status (46%), financial readiness (42%), and need for a larger home (40%). The main sources of down payment include prior home equity (56%), savings outside of an RRSP (32%), and gifts or inheritances (20%). Mortgage loan types, fixed rate (76%), floating rate (16%), combined rate (6%).
From the boring numbers above we can draw the following conclusions:1. Even in a period of stagnant housing prices, there are still more than70% of people believe that real estate is a safe asset warehouse and has the potential to appreciate. During the period of rising house prices, this proportion once exceeded 85%; secondly, although it is increasingly difficult to become a homeowner, buyers who can get a down payment from their parents can still get in first and become homeowners as early as possible. Currently, Toronto is the entry-level homebuyer. The first-class property is a CONDO, with an average price of 680,000. With a 20% down payment and an annual income of more than 110,000, you can realize your dream of buying a house. Third, due to the increased economic uncertainty caused by the tariff war initiated by the United States, fixed interest rates are more popular, and the term of the fixed interest rate matches the term of the current U.S. president.
Conclusion:
Prime Minister Carney's views on housing prices make people feel that he is playing a word game. "If income growth can exceed housing price growth, the housing crisis will not worsen." It violates basic mathematical logic.house price= down payment + 5 times annual income. If income increases by 100 yuan, housing prices can rise by 500 yuan.This is a simple mathematical question that I believe everyone can understand. It is difficult for income to beat housing prices.
Canada’s federal election has been settled, the U.S. tariff policy is about to be clarified, and the bad news is about to come out. The trend of interest rates is not unobservable, but can be traced and is not a factor of uncertainty. How to predict the direction of interest rates, please go to YouTube to search for videos"Reasons for the suspension of interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada. Prospects for interest rate trends. The impact of fluctuations in U.S. bond interest rates. How to choose mortgage interest rates. Henry WangApril 19, 2025》. The real estate market situation in the second half of 2025 should be very different from the first half. Readers who have been tracking changes in the real estate market are advised to make early plans.
I mentioned in the above video analyzing the direction of interest rates that buying Canadian real estate is equivalent to buying gold. Because in the past 30 years since 1998,In core Canadian cities such as Toronto and Vancouver, average house prices have been equivalent to7 kilograms of gold.But gold does not generate rental income, nor can it be purchased with leverage. Therefore, buying real estate in Canada's core cities is a defensive investment behavior that protects assets from the impact of currency issuance. When the U.S. dollar, U.S. bonds, and U.S. stocks become more volatile, it is the right time to buy real estate in Canada's core cities. Dancing with risks rather than avoiding them is our lifelong practice. In 2025, Canadian housing prices have stabilized. Buy now and cherish it.
Henry Wang May 26, 2025 in Toronto